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Is India ready to handle Heat Wave 2023?

Last year, people in India suffered devastating #heatwaves between March and April (#summer), with five times increased #heatwave days and an 8°C higher temperature than the average #temperature between March and April.

Further, in the last few months of this year, due to the lack of #winterstorm in the #mediterranean, there may be possibilities that Western Disturbance (WD) shall be ineffective in disorganising the recently growing #warm regions. The WD is a tropical cyclone that originated in the #mediterraneansea and moves towards #india up to south-eastern #nepal and northern #bangladesh. The high-pressure system displayed over regions like #russia, #ukraine, and neighboring countries causes cold air influx from the Polar Regions towards an area of relatively warmer air with significant moisture. Consequently, an extratropical depression that moves eastward is formed in the Mediterranean Sea, resulting in the pressure change from cold to warm air. This creates ideal circumstances for cyclogenesis in the upper layer of the #atmosphere. These eventually move towards the Indian subcontinent after progressively crossing the #middleeast from #iran, #afghanistan, and #pakistan. The WD brings sudden winter or pre-monsoon rain to the northern portions of the Indian subcontinent.

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Source: Western Disturbance - Effects & Benefits for India.

Further, in the last three years La Niña has been dominated, so this year the return of El Niño is expected.

With persistent warming of the sea surface in the equatorial #pacific region, #elnino impacts India by causing reduced cloud cover and below-normal rains, often leading to drought and severe heat waves, followed by a disrupted monsoon season. During the strong 2016 El Niño, the summer temperature reached up to 51°C in India, the highest temperature ever recorded.

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Source: EnvrioChem Services (OPC) Pvt. Ltd.

Due to these heat waves, the spring #crop season shortens, consequently decreasing the spring #cropyield. The reduced spring crop yield shall increase the profit margin for the distributors but will decrease the farmer's income. This will lead to the employment of fewer people in the fields. During the heat waves, #labor income and productivity are the worst impacted. Moreover, considering India is one of the world's biggest producers of #wheat, this year's heat wave shall also put additional pressure on the #globalfood market.

However, this #2023year we still do not know the severity and magnitude of heat waves in India, but the warning signs are here.

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Location: Surat, Gujarat, India

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